Eight out of ten court decisions can be predicted by crowdsourcing, according to a new US study. The research analysed the results of a competition to forecast the outcome of US Supreme Court decisions.
Researchers studied the results of an US online fantasy league, Fantasy SCOTUS, which asked contestants to predict US Supreme Court decisions. Players are ranked in a league with the best winning prizes of up to $10,000. Over 600,000 predictions have been made by more than 7,000 participants, since the league stated in 2009.
Academics from universities in Chicago, Stanford and Houston analysed the results between 2011 and 2017. They found that the crowdsourced results outperformed other predictive models. “We provide strong support for the claim that crowdsourcing can accurately and robustly predict the decisions of the Supreme Court of the United States,” they said.
“These findings could point to a new way of deciding whether or not to start legal action,” said James Burgoyne, Director – Claims & Technical, Brunel Professions. “Innovative techniques such as crowdsourcing or artificial intelligence could make it easier in the future for a professional indemnity insurer to decide whether to pay a claim or challenge it in court.”
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